Chris Gilligan • February 24, 2022
With primaries nearing, the high-profile Pennsylvania Senate race is heating up. The race, which is the subject of much national interest as an opportunity for the Democrats to turn retiring GOP Senator Pat Toomey’s seat blue, seems poised to feature two competitive primaries on May 17.
Democratic U.S. Representative Conor Lamb (PA-17) fell shy of nabbing a party endorsement in a January State Committee vote, failing to reach the two-thirds requirement but garnering 159 votes to outperform his more progressive competition, Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman (64 votes) and State Representative Malcolm Kenyatta (42).
From a fundraising perspective, though, Lamb has ground to gain. According to tracking from the Center for Responsive Politics, Fetterman out-fundraised all other candidates through 2021 by over two times, nearing $12 million by the new year.
His fundraising advantage has contributed to a consistent polling lead. In the most recent poll funded by Fetterman’s campaign through Data for Progress, he held a 46%-16% lead over Lamb, followed by Kenyatta at 12%. Other polls from the last six months also show broad margins, including an October Franklin & Marshall poll reflecting a 34%-12% lead, and a December poll funded by Kenyatta’s campaign from GQR Research showing Fetterman leading Kenyatta 44%-20%. Montgomery County Commissioner Val Arkoosh has struggled in the polls to this point, finishing fourth in each of these reports.
Despite failing to secure the party endorsement, Lamb can hope that voters see the support as a vote of confidence in the congressman.
The GOP primary race is even more crowded, with little clarity since a hectic November, when Trump-endorsed Sean Parnell withdrew and TV personality Mehmet Oz announced his candidacy. The most recent poll released by the Trafalgar Group this month has Oz leading with 27.4%, followed by former hedge fund CEO David McCormick (15.9%) and public equity CEO Carla Sands (14.8). Conservative commentator Kathy Barnette (8.9) and 2018 Lieutenant Governor candidate Jeff Bartos (6.6) rounded out the top five of a busy field.
However, Bartos and McCormick have been the favorites among regional caucus voters, with Bartos leading in the straw polls and McCormick generating some momentum after entering the race just last month. Despite no party endorsement, Bartos’ established support may help make up for some of the financial gap between him and his deep-pocketed opponents.
In a famously contentious battleground state - won by Joe Biden by just 80,000 votes in 2020 - with a high level of uncertainty in the primaries and potentially critical national implications, it is hard to predict what the general election could have in store.
In limited polling conducted to this point on hypothetical November match-ups, the Fetterman-funded Data for Progress polling found him leading Bartos by 10 points last May, and Oz by two points in December. Also in May, the Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group found Fetterman polling 9 points over Bartos. A lot has happened since then, and we can count on much more between now and November.